For me, this isn’t a season where you can simply look at last year’s finishing positions. Recruitment, retention, coaching and the circumstances of promotion and relegation make a big difference.
The season begins this coming Saturday 5 September, with Plymouth Albion travelling to Rosslyn Park, Rams hosting Sale FC, Cambridge visiting Birmingham Moseley and the other promoted and relegated sides immediately being thrown into some difficult fixtures.
Here is my forecast for the coming season. Apologies to those who disagree but it’s just an opinion and knowing my prediction history I am sure I will be completely wrong:
1. Plymouth Albion
My title favourites.
Plymouth finished third last season and were already one of the strongest sides in the division. More importantly, they have retained a very good core and recruited intelligently.
The biggest piece of business for me is Iwan Jenkins. The Welsh-qualified fly-half made the No. 10 shirt his own last season and was outstanding for Plymouth, contributing 170 points at the time of his permanent signing. His kicking and game management could prove decisive in tight National One matches.
Plymouth have also added considerable physicality and experience, including Morgan Eames, while retaining players such as Harry Legg, Harry Wilkinson and Noah Fenton.
This isn’t simply a side relying on last year’s momentum. It looks stronger.
Prediction: 1st
2. Rosslyn Park
If anybody is going to stop Plymouth, I think it could be Rosslyn Park.
They retained 34 players from last season and have added some very interesting quality, including players with Championship and Premiership academy experience.
The sheer depth of their squad is impressive. They also have experience throughout the backs, including Jack Matthews, Josh Barton and Rory Jennings.
Rosslyn Park finished fourth last season, but I think their recruitment and retention make them considerably more dangerous this time around.
The opening fixture could hardly be more appropriate: Rosslyn Park v Plymouth Albion.
Prediction: 2nd
3. Rams
Rams are my slightly dark-horse candidate for a genuine promotion challenge.
They have retained key players including Mike Cooke, who scored 153 points last season, Zach Clow, Willo Bicknell and Ryan Lomas.
They have also recruited heavily, bringing in players including Ross McKay, Matt Wickham, Sam Stirling, Connor Burns, Johnny Ireland, JJ Wozniak, Will Saunders, Darren Bold and Oli Sedgwick.
That gives them considerably more depth than perhaps they are sometimes credited with.
Their fixture list is tough, but if they can turn Old Bath Road into the fortress it has been previously, I can see them finishing in the top three.
Prediction: 3rd
4. Sale FC
I’m sticking firmly with top five for Sale.
They finished fifth last season and remain one of the established National One clubs. They also haven’t stood still, with the signing of James Mitchell adding Premiership and Championship-winning experience.
They are particularly difficult to dismiss because they know how to win National One games. They aren’t dependent on one or two star names.
I think they will be involved in the battle for the top three for much of the season, although I have Plymouth, Rosslyn Park and Rams just ahead of them.
Prediction: 4th
5. London Scottish
The obvious question is whether a team relegated from the Championship should immediately be regarded as a promotion contender.
In Scottish’s case, I think the answer is yes.
They finished second-bottom in the Championship but retained a significant amount of their squad, including captain and player-coach Dan Nutton, Harry Clayton, Will Prior and Jonny Law.
They have also recruited players with Championship and Premiership backgrounds.
They should be extremely motivated, and National One is a level where their experience could count for a lot.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Scottish were higher than fifth.
Prediction: 5th
6. Bishop’s Stortford
I originally had Stortford too low — and having looked more closely at their squad, I’ve changed my mind.
They were a solid National One side last season and have retained a good number of players. Jake Thompson remains captain, while there is experience around players such as Isaac Bell, Chris Bolton and Tom Hitchcock.
They aren’t spectacular on paper, but they are experienced, organised and capable of beating sides above them.
I expect them to be comfortably competitive.
Prediction: 6th
7. Camborne
This is one of the teams I would be very wary of underestimating.
Camborne didn’t scrape promotion. They absolutely dominated National Two West: 22 wins from 26, 113 points, a +448 points difference and 1,106 points scored.
More importantly, they have recruited for National One rather than simply celebrating promotion.
Fraser Honey arrives with Championship and National One experience, while Joel Matavesi has played at Bedford, Northampton, Newcastle and in France.
They’ve also retained key players such as Jack Andrew, Jamie Prisk and prolific hooker Ben Priddey.
The Cornish factor shouldn’t be underestimated either. Getting Camborne at home is going to be a very different proposition from travelling to many other National One grounds.
I could easily see them finishing higher than seventh.
Prediction: 7th
8. Cambridge
I’ve changed my original prediction here quite substantially.
Having looked properly at the rebuild, I don’t think Cambridge should be written off because they were relegated from the Championship.
Yes, they were winless in the Championship and there has been a substantial turnover of players. That is the obvious concern.
But Craig Newby has deliberately rebuilt the squad around the way he wants Cambridge to play rather than simply replacing names with names.
There are some interesting additions, including prop Sam Turner, who joined from Clifton and has also been involved with Canada, while the club has continued to develop its links with the professional academy environment.
The infrastructure and coaching are also considerably stronger than the league position might suggest.
The huge warning sign was the 76-5 pre-season defeat to Bedford. That tells us there is still a lot of work to do. But Bedford are a Championship side, and Cambridge’s first half in that match showed enough to suggest they aren’t going to be pushovers.
Their opening fixture at Moseley is particularly interesting.
I now think 8th is realistic, with a top-six finish possible if the new combinations click quickly.
Prediction: 8th
9. Dings Crusaders
Another club I think people could underestimate.
Dings have the advantage of being based in Bristol and have developed a strong relationship with the professional rugby pathway in the area, including links with Bristol Bears and academy players.
They finished one place behind Leeds last season and survived a difficult campaign, but their environment and ability to attract young talent gives them something several National One clubs don’t have.
The question is consistency.
They can beat good sides at Shaftesbury Park, but can they do it often enough?
I think they’ll be safely clear of the relegation battle, with the potential to finish considerably higher.
Prediction: 9th
10. Leeds Tykes
Leeds had a very good second half of last season, climbing to ninth, and they’ve recruited well enough to avoid being dragged into the bottom three.
There is plenty of rugby pedigree around the club and several of the new additions have good Yorkshire, university or professional-academy backgrounds.
However, compared with the teams I’ve put above them, I’m not convinced they’ve yet assembled the same overall depth.
They’ll have some very good afternoons, but I see them as mid-table.
Prediction: 10th
11. Sheffield
Sheffield deserve enormous credit for winning National Two North.
They went unbeaten through their first 22 matches, finished with 121 points, scored heavily and conceded only 467 points. They also collected 24 try bonus points.
That is the profile of a very good promoted team.
The problem is the jump to National One.
They are going to encounter far greater depth, more professional-level players and much more difficult away fixtures.
I think they will survive, but probably only after a tough season.
Prediction: 11th
12. Tonbridge Juddians
TJs impressed me last season.
Their 35-25 defeat of Plymouth demonstrated exactly what they’re capable of. They also had a very good return to National One overall.
But repeating that over a full season is difficult.
They have enough quality to stay clear of the bottom two, but I don’t see quite enough depth to challenge the top half.
Prediction: 12th
13. Bury St Edmunds
Bury were another hugely impressive promoted side.
They won National Two East with 20 wins and a draw, accumulated 108 points and scored 1,128 points. They also won nine of their final ten matches.
Those are outstanding numbers.
But National One is a substantial step up.
They could surprise a few teams at home, and I wouldn’t expect them to be embarrassed, but over 26 games I think the lack of experience at this level will eventually tell.
Prediction: 13th
14. Birmingham Moseley
And this is where I’m deliberately going against reputation.
Moseley are a huge name historically and have enormous tradition, but history doesn’t win National One matches.
They finished 11th last season and had to go through the retention play-offs, beating Luctonians before narrowly overcoming Oundle to retain their place.
They have made additions and there are some good players in the squad, but I haven’t seen enough to convince me that they have transformed themselves into a top-half side.
In fact, I think their survival last season was a warning rather than a sign that they’re ready to climb the table.
Their opening fixture against Cambridge is therefore fascinating. Cambridge are rebuilding, while Moseley have the pressure of needing to prove that last season’s relegation battle was an aberration.
For me, they start the season as the favourites for the drop.
Prediction: 14th
As always good luck to all teams. I will be following this division with great interest.
